Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8c8cb2d45603e87e72cb2c2e971a0e76098cba7c84e27d6c9a97f0adb85ad01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d73…0a6dbacked Yes | 50c | 2,650$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e9…31bfbacked No | 50c | 2,650$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…2f63backed Yes | 50c | 2,640$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155a…a281backed No | 50c | 2,640$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 1c | 2,450$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 45c | 1,320$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.67 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…4d4ebacked No | 50c | 1,209$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 53c | 1,036$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.89 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -8.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 49c | 867.99$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed No | 54c | 718.43$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed No | 62c | 646.54$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 43c | 555.01$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.24 | 115 | 30.4%35 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 46c | 554.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.69 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 44c | 378.3$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.26 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…599fbacked No | 57c | 353.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 35c | 300$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…2357backed No | 63c | 272.38$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 50c | 255.25$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes | 49c | 217.57$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…3a9fbacked No | 52c | 192.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 42c | 186.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 57c | 176.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 49c | 175$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 41c | 150$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 55c | 150$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 46c | 145$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0608…7cc2backed No | 60c | 142.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…3c3ebacked Yes | 40c | 136.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 53c | 119.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 47c | 112.08$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -6.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1710…3344backed Yes | 75c | 110.27$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked No | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 51c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked No | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa376…74d7backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 48c | 99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 43c | 93.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 42c | 81.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c4…812fbacked Yes | 51c | 81.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 45c | 79.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 44c | 68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdea4…15dbbacked No | 50c | 60.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 54c | 56.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 35c | 51.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…8de7backed Yes | 38c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33ce…a3efbacked No | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…5e66backed No | 46c | 43.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed No | 56c | 42.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…594abacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 35.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c2…65a0backed No | 62c | 32.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b61…a567backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c623backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cd…cc33backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…76f2backed Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 57cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0835…4c91backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Percent" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Democrat" 4+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Laggard" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Mineral" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Patriot" or "Tomahawk" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Sanction" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Stupid" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Suit" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.