TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Gibson Jr. (Catchweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Greenof Green, Gibson Jr.
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$305,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$414,560

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,352 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Gibson Jr.4c80,657$3,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,626.734835.4%17 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x561b…05c3backed Green63c13,000$8,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,809.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e6…025bbacked Green64c10,740$6,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,908.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Gibson Jr.11c7,846$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.5410522.9%24 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Gibson Jr.40c7,484$2,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,973.6790553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Gibson Jr.38c7,223$2,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,735.923537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Gibson Jr.38c6,084$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,300.365632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Gibson Jr.39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9502343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a8b…b1c8backed Gibson Jr.27c4,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.7513650%68 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Green61c3,658$2,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.572552%13 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Gibson Jr.42c3,541$1,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,493.557233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Gibson Jr.37c3,506$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked Gibson Jr.37c3,180$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.9922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-60.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Gibson Jr.37c3,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10021044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Green63c3,000$1,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.3230039.3%118 W · 182 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…964dbacked Gibson Jr.2c2,967$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.25150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3158…d469backed Green64c2,852$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.07475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+31.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa253…7630backed Gibson Jr.37c2,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.115240.4%21 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Gibson Jr.37c2,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked Green61c2,482$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.967545.3%34 W · 41 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Green61c2,409$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.2633253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Green61c2,071$1,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.617055.3%94 W · 76 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed Gibson Jr.2c2,069$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.378248.8%40 W · 42 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Gibson Jr.37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7405435.2%19 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Gibson Jr.36c1,863$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6775152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Green61c1,610$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.8216247.5%77 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efe…7b44backed Gibson Jr.39c1,545$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.612142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Gibson Jr.39c1,538$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.822040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Gibson Jr.46c1,506$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.665653.6%30 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Gibson Jr.37c1,474$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.315641%64 W · 92 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Gibson Jr.39c1,152$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.997843.6%34 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x606f…b3b5backed Gibson Jr.39c1,144$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+53.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked Gibson Jr.39c1,034$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Gibson Jr.37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37036745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bdf…64c3backed Green64c1,000$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.786060%36 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ce…691abacked Green59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41017850%89 W · 89 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Green62c900$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3388650%43 W · 43 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Gibson Jr.37c810.81$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d05…6f11backed Gibson Jr.34c712.82$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2445250%26 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Gibson Jr.38c642.99$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.342437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Gibson Jr.37c619$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.031233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Gibson Jr.38c522.07$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Green53c513.21$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.2113267.4%89 W · 43 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Gibson Jr.39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1952850%14 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Gibson Jr.38c500$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19210843.5%47 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4209…7582backed Gibson Jr.36c476.5$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.145448.1%26 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0174…f66fbacked Gibson Jr.37c405.41$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Green62c402.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.143435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Green79c400.06$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.01683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Gibson Jr.38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15220933.5%70 W · 139 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Green63c400$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14835664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Gibson Jr.39c384.62$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506937.7%26 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0e2d…05e4backed Gibson Jr.39c358.97$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Gibson Jr.39c349.99$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.525251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf353…b287backed Gibson Jr.11c314.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.68402.5%1 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-88.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Green61c310.81$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.221050%5 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Gibson Jr.37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11139959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…2ecdbacked Gibson Jr.33c299.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Green63c299.98$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.9910451.9%54 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Gibson Jr.7c289.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Green62c284.78$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2212446.8%58 W · 66 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Gibson Jr.37c270.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013940.3%56 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked Gibson Jr.38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005149%25 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…e7b3backed Gibson Jr.38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Gibson Jr.39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10051533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked Gibson Jr.39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+47.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Green55c238.5$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2721247.2%100 W · 112 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Green66c237.71$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.573354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe148…e9d0backed Green62c214.66$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.571361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0506…8c6abacked Green58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8416746.1%77 W · 90 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Gibson Jr.40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8053956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Gibson Jr.52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…d3dcbacked Green57c174.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.81666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9324…7e95backed Gibson Jr.37c162.16$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4579…9f19backed Green62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd594…98c4backed Green63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.738851.1%45 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Gibson Jr.37c156.76$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5816655.4%92 W · 74 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cdd…11bebacked Gibson Jr.27c155$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.354337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Gibson Jr.36c137.81$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.614240.5%17 W · 25 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcda6…5309backed Gibson Jr.37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc99d…5d6bbacked Gibson Jr.37c133.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4125…52ccbacked Gibson Jr.40c132.5$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Green77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8732545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaade…64eabacked Gibson Jr.39c129.69$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.584139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5c0…be1cbacked Gibson Jr.39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3d3…e8e1backed Green80c125.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.323966.7%26 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Green76c116.3$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7713636%49 W · 87 L-13.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2b9c…900fbacked Gibson Jr.38c110$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.87830.8%24 W · 54 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x45b0…ceebbacked Green61c109.84$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.842972.4%21 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+25.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d4f…950bbacked Green56c107.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.14955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Gibson Jr.38c105.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015556.8%88 W · 67 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd16…0be8backed Gibson Jr.40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406851.5%35 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f0…7e22backed Gibson Jr.39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95da…60b4backed Gibson Jr.39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Gibson Jr.38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3848749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2025…129ebacked Green64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Gibson Jr.35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3552252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f1…3dccbacked Gibson Jr.38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Green62c99.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4933948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce2e…3e5abacked Gibson Jr.41c97.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.