UFC · resolved market
UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59b8e5706aff0c51f591f66aca90c6a4d7e8bd07ec1f9064aa0ce3a5e3447f32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Talbottof Cejudo, Talbott
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $388,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $475,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $388,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 507 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Cejudo | 30c | 44,363$13,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,401.48 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Cejudo | 30c | 43,107$12,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,910.35 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cejudo | 31c | 21,417$6,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,598.9 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Talbott | 69c | 21,061$14,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,528.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…d420backed Talbott | 70c | 18,000$12,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,400 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Talbott | 70c | 17,317$12,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,195.17 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Talbott | 69c | 11,662$8,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,615.78 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked Cejudo | 30c | 10,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Talbott | 70c | 7,143$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,142.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…57b3backed Talbott | 70c | 7,139$4,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,141.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Talbott | 69c | 6,666$4,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,044.16 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Talbott | 69c | 6,312$4,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,956.87 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97af…9bc6backed Talbott | 69c | 6,207$4,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…d274backed Cejudo | 31c | 6,200$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…0d46backed Talbott | 69c | 6,000$4,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…4c69backed Talbott | 70c | 5,713$3,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.84 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Cejudo | 22c | 5,450$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.78 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Cejudo | 32c | 4,700$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.96 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Cejudo | 27c | 3,919$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.12 | 277 | 43%119 W · 158 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed Cejudo | 31c | 3,871$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…0aaabacked Cejudo | 34c | 3,800$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…50eabacked Talbott | 70c | 3,787$2,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.39 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Cejudo | 31c | 3,606$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Cejudo | 30c | 3,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.89 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed Talbott | 68c | 3,250$2,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.86 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Talbott | 66c | 3,248$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.48 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb322…2179backed Talbott | 70c | 3,214$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Cejudo | 31c | 3,094$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Talbott | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Cejudo | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Cejudo | 2c | 2,996$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Cejudo | 1c | 2,893$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cejudo | 5c | 2,783$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.49 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Cejudo | 30c | 2,702$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Talbott | 70c | 2,700$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6352…6726backed Talbott | 69c | 2,681$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.77 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Talbott | 68c | 2,673$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.83 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Talbott | 72c | 2,639$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.96 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Cejudo | 31c | 2,550$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.5 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Cejudo | 7c | 2,527$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.89 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Cejudo | 34c | 2,527$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Talbott | 69c | 2,500$1,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.98 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadc2…00c7backed Talbott | 70c | 2,430$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…1832backed Talbott | 70c | 2,429$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…cd25backed Cejudo | 31c | 2,400$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c7…047bbacked Cejudo | 31c | 2,400$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Talbott | 69c | 2,239$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Cejudo | 31c | 2,131$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.03 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7f…6b36backed Cejudo | 32c | 2,100$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Talbott | 68c | 2,045$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.27 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…a443backed Cejudo | 32c | 2,030$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe161…4ebfbacked Talbott | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8c…9390backed Cejudo | 32c | 2,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Talbott | 63c | 1,918$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.8 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…89b1backed Cejudo | 32c | 1,700$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb81…a4f3backed Cejudo | 31c | 1,700$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5afd…3e66backed Cejudo | 32c | 1,620$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3040…b272backed Cejudo | 32c | 1,540$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe749…91ffbacked Cejudo | 31c | 1,530$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…d3f0backed Cejudo | 33c | 1,519$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Talbott | 70c | 1,501$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.44 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9252…d173backed Cejudo | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Talbott | 69c | 1,476$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.69 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked Talbott | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Cejudo | 6c | 1,423$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cejudo | 8c | 1,337$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5d…91d8backed Cejudo | 8c | 1,303$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646a…3dafbacked Talbott | 71c | 1,300$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked Cejudo | 7c | 1,258$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Talbott | 68c | 1,241$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.24 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed Cejudo | 31c | 1,226$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.06 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -12.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…c53fbacked Cejudo | 16c | 1,220$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Talbott | 70c | 1,214$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.29 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Talbott | 68c | 1,171$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.82 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…aee2backed Cejudo | 3c | 1,119$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…586fbacked Cejudo | 31c | 1,100$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db8…12d4backed Cejudo | 31c | 1,100$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…4c05backed Talbott | 69c | 1,100$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8671…4c5fbacked Talbott | 69c | 1,100$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…2184backed Cejudo | 31c | 1,095$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…2489backed Talbott | 69c | 1,095$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…ab2fbacked Cejudo | 31c | 1,050$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x190e…ea9fbacked Talbott | 69c | 1,050$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…2429backed Talbott | 71c | 1,005$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefd7…4b7abacked Cejudo | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…8b30backed Cejudo | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1be7…19e0backed Talbott | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…8abdbacked Cejudo | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3f…1a1ebacked Talbott | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Talbott | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9530…ce5abacked Talbott | 69c | 998.75$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.61 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 55cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Talbott | 70c | 998.57$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdddc…ced2backed Cejudo | 30c | 985.38$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…b9d1backed Cejudo | 31c | 967.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Cejudo | 29c | 967.4$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.02 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb65c…269abacked Talbott | 69c | 900$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4eb…3f1abacked Talbott | 68c | 900$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…f7d2backed Talbott | 69c | 900$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…9cc5backed Talbott | 69c | 900$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Talbott | 70c | 856.17$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.17 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Payton Talbott win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.