UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x103f45cfd76f9a8b7097ef107c4d066f11fad2a26a15fff4c6fd6f5f074b5735
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 37c | 2,598$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.82 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 35c | 2,457$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.07 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…7263backed Yes | 63c | 2,347$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Yes | 64c | 1,458$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.06 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked No | 38c | 499.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Yes | 59c | 387.56$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.9 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…683fbacked Yes | 76c | 304.62$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed No | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…c61bbacked No | 70c | 243.9$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 39c | 229.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…8b6dbacked Yes | 61c | 190$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.3 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Yes | 56c | 167.93$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 11c | 152.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 64c | 140$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…62c7backed No | 39c | 130.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…a297backed Yes | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Yes | 58c | 52.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…1ef5backed No | 60c | 43.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed No | 42c | 41.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…d8d6backed No | 42c | 40.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1e…15b7backed No | 41c | 36.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card)Talbott won
- Will Payton Talbott win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.