UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a477e27061ea2424bef138a6834663225a29d9297aa9fc840b16daa654b0ace
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d9…717bbacked Yes | 71c | 14,689$10,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,253.47 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 28c | 9,904$2,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,773.19 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Yes | 75c | 9,242$6,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,285.14 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3529…a599backed No | 31c | 3,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 23c | 2,458$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.83 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed No | 25c | 2,146$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.5 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…c625backed No | 23c | 1,462$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f82…d930backed No | 25c | 1,206$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2195…16f9backed Yes | 77c | 909.09$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 70c | 699.98$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071e…0d11backed No | 31c | 575.74$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61d…74d2backed No | 25c | 526.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 29c | 501.66$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.48 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 19c | 497.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 77c | 486$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8d…c822backed No | 23c | 469.17$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked No | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2239backed No | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed No | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 22c | 299.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 72c | 261.86$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e920backed Yes | 76c | 241.17$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…0a58backed No | 22c | 227.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed No | 24c | 225$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2e…5899backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x226d…f49ebacked No | 31c | 180.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 25c | 179.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…1ef5backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 25c | 161.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Yes | 75c | 159.6$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9128…4470backed No | 69c | 158.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af5…89babacked No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed No | 29c | 149.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…ee08backed No | 26c | 144$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…8b13backed No | 26c | 143$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a5…c452backed No | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…87b7backed Yes | 74c | 138$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…9f8dbacked Yes | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…ea6fbacked Yes | 74c | 129$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c3…a6ecbacked No | 26c | 122$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…8a39backed Yes | 74c | 115$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…abb3backed No | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb845…4a7fbacked Yes | 12c | 106$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 4cpaid | +651.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…1748backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…a297backed Yes | 75c | 81.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdd…11bebacked No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Yes | 75c | 60.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3c…9beabacked No | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…630abacked No | 49c | 52.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…fe83backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4c…667abacked Yes | 76c | 51.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked No | 24c | 45.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…3702backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…09c8backed No | 46c | 37.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…3295backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 70c | 27.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5e…af9bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…b5b5backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…9782backed Yes | 70c | 21.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)Yan won
- Will Merab Dvalishvili win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Petr Yan win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.