UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb83172eb4f4394bffa6023a79036f6f8cf70b20eb55ff4d5e8d321a99172e52d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ff7…7f87backed Yes | 23c | 869.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked No | 77c | 769.57$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 73c | 499.99$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 79c | 476.19$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 79c | 297.14$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…9c9ebacked Yes | 18c | 274.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 30c | 225.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…9f8dbacked Yes | 15c | 127$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa931…4366backed Yes | 16c | 127$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…e0d3backed Yes | 24c | 118.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1371…2678backed Yes | 16c | 113$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf0…0d2abacked Yes | 27c | 104.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed No | 75c | 18.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfac5…9782backed No | 80c | 15.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)Yan won
- Will Merab Dvalishvili win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Petr Yan win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.