UFC · resolved market
O/U 4.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89b2f59c26d94c76f9bf762b3cc8fa2eced50c686d4a0c1e8a53dfa841a4aa40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85c2…00f8backed Under | 1c | 55,555$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Over | 74c | 19,210$14,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,994.42 | 57 | 75.4%43 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 26c | 9,484$2,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,446.92 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 26c | 3,633$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.62 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Under | 29c | 862.07$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 27c | 800$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf394…2a7ebacked Under | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Over | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Under | 31c | 490.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.36per pick | 45cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 27c | 477.22$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.85 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Under | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…ade5backed Over | 75c | 338.27$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5810…0f18backed Over | 70c | 318.38$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +713.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 25c | 248.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226d…f49ebacked Under | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Under | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…db09backed Under | 26c | 144$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…6198backed Under | 27c | 142$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…8558backed Under | 27c | 141$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb61d…74d2backed Under | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…f708backed Under | 27c | 138$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…7762backed Under | 26c | 136$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…e46ebacked Over | 74c | 134$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a2…2797backed Over | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…5cc8backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3812…0fecbacked Over | 73c | 129$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e8…b1b0backed Over | 73c | 129$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…d3b7backed Under | 26c | 129$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…d492backed Under | 26c | 127$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…04b5backed Over | 73c | 123$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…ec97backed Over | 74c | 123$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…10f6backed Over | 74c | 122$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed Under | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Over | 71c | 48.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Under | 29c | 44.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked Over | 74c | 41.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…be48backed Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 4.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)Yan won
- Will Merab Dvalishvili win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Petr Yan win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.