UFC · resolved market
Will the fight be won by submission?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6d70bf81766774f2579a1503b52784ab32dd9b859e99960902a1566b9fa3171
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2ab…f2c3backed Yes | 16c | 7,470$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Yes | 16c | 2,327$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…7e3ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,235$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…6ec8backed Yes | 17c | 1,185$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9246…2736backed Yes | 16c | 750$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 16c | 702.59$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…9c9ebacked Yes | 12c | 407.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 20c | 206.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fac…f88bbacked Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…e0d3backed Yes | 24c | 187.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…bdefbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf464…a89bbacked Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4d…2051backed Yes | 10c | 112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…359bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…d4e3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…1ef5backed Yes | 15c | 81.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the fight be won by submission?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 3.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)Yan won
- Will Merab Dvalishvili win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Petr Yan win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.