TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7a64…767f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
87
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Serie A, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 52 out of 100; worst Dota2 at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$413Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$128.96
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$54.34
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.24
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$362Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$361.56
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$5.75
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$933Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$933.02
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+125%+$83.16
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+37%+$81
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$233.3
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$947Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+40.3%+$381.78
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,069Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$1,068.68
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+232.3%+$92.91
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$327Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+39%+$127.51
Ranger FDV above $40M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$94.86
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,012Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+48.5%+$490.82
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$872Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+29%+$252.56
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,070Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+35.6%+$380.92
No airdrop in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$26.7
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.31
All 19 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST1330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-46.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Team Heretics vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$48.18
LoL: Shifters vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked Shifters · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$298Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+47.1%+$140.14
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$254.4
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$76.44
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50
LoL: Shifters vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked Los Ratones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$407Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+173.4%+$705.31
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Invictus Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$219.72
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$28.05
LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverancebacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$718Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+26%+$186.53
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+44.9%+$28.79
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverancebacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$311.68
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverancebacked ThunderTalk Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$19.8
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)backed G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$131.99
All 13 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: OG vs Yakutou Brothers (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Abacked OG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+29.7%+$86.79
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+177.8%+$104.52
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Slam Play-Inbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$393Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$393.36
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Slam Play-Inbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$37.21
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+64%+$199
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$180
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$247.8
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$206.94
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs REKONIX (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked REKONIX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$115
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Playoffsbacked 1win · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$49.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Abacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$23.6
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked Passion UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$73.32
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-Inbacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+65%+$64.37
Counter-Strike: ALLINNERS vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Play-In Group Cbacked ALLINNERS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$108.26
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Play-In Group Cbacked MOUZ NXT · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$207
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Team Nemesis (BO3)backed Sangal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$110
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3)backed FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+44.9%+$134.78
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX (BO3)backed 3DMAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+266.3%+$101.19
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid (BO3)backed Passion UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+38.9%+$12.44
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Plovdiv 2: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Franco Agamenonebacked Radu Mihai Papoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$53.67
Warsaw: Mona Barthel vs Elizara Yanevabacked Elizara Yaneva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$46.88
BMW Open: Vit Kopriva vs Luciano Darderibacked Luciano Darderi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.74
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Pegulabacked Svitolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$15.71
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Mirra Andreeva vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Anisimova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+72.5%+$69.2
Qatar Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Zizou Bergsbacked Bergs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$24.8
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+143.9%+$57.82
Jiangxi Open: Dominika Salkova vs Anastasia Zakharovabacked Zakharova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
All 8 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+38.9%+$137.5
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$55
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$53.7
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$14.82
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Como win on 2025-10-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$112.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Granada CF vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$4.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Swedenbacked Sweden · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$37.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$129
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$112
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.