Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Yakutou Brothers (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaccd6f6c4b69de307dfa9ca55f76b2cffa1ac988be29fd054cb2d72683f71a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof OG, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Yakutou Brothers | 1c | 9,427$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.16 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Yakutou Brothers | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…3bc1backed Yakutou Brothers | 16c | 930.17$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…5ea8backed Yakutou Brothers | 13c | 862$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Yakutou Brothers | 18c | 810.07$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.43 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 20c | 612.01$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.74 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yakutou Brothers | 20c | 426.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…767fbacked OG | 77c | 378.78$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…413fbacked Yakutou Brothers | 15c | 307$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Yakutou Brothers | 24c | 260.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…2ce9backed Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 204.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…c953backed Yakutou Brothers | 25c | 194.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…91ecbacked Yakutou Brothers | 13c | 176.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed OG | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7a…ee61backed OG | 78c | 131.94$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5230…11b5backed OG | 78c | 128.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yakutou Brothers | 18c | 123.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yakutou Brothers | 23c | 118$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yakutou Brothers | 16c | 116.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed OG | 79c | 112.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 104.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked OG | 75c | 100.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Yakutou Brothers | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Yakutou Brothers | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…90c0backed Yakutou Brothers | 25c | 98.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed OG | 76c | 96.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…615fbacked Yakutou Brothers | 16c | 90.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Yakutou Brothers | 23c | 81.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…a86bbacked Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa28b…9d4cbacked OG | 76c | 64.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked OG | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yakutou Brothers | 21c | 59.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yakutou Brothers | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…5211backed Yakutou Brothers | 23c | 52.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Yakutou Brothers | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…d96fbacked OG | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…665bbacked OG | 79c | 22.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…180fbacked OG | 76c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…ad29backed OG | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 74cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Yakutou Brothers (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Athis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 WinnerOG won
- Dota 2: OG vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 WinnerOG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.