Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadcfe4b35864591b33db862b97b006076f83ef9d7a1eda50dd44d181af12be6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed 1win | 1c | 2,749$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked 1win | 16c | 890.32$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.13 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…0e54backed 1win | 18c | 849.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed 1win | 3c | 638.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed 1win | 37c | 599.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed 1win | 5c | 463.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed 1win | 14c | 436.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked 1win | 13c | 387.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…767fbacked 1win | 14c | 364.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Aurora | 63c | 301$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.37 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +8.5wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1b12backed 1win | 21c | 289.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked 1win | 16c | 263.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccc…9918backed 1win | 14c | 237.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked 1win | 6c | 220.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked 1win | 11c | 204.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Aurora | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f14…db46backed 1win | 35c | 176.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed 1win | 34c | 175$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed 1win | 28c | 160.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Aurora | 62c | 156.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962a…e2cdbacked 1win | 38c | 153.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Aurora | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f02…1395backed Aurora | 67c | 132.11$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa787…a9d1backed 1win | 34c | 127$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed 1win | 13c | 117.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed 1win | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora | 70c | 116.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed 1win | 15c | 113.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 235 | 29.4%69 W · 166 L | -21.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed 1win | 14c | 112.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…3f58backed 1win | 33c | 100.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed 1win | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…e051backed 1win | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Aurora | 79c | 96.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 138 | 27.5%38 W · 100 L | -15.0wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed 1win | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 32c | 69.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Aurora | 73c | 65.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Aurora | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Aurora | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Aurora | 69c | 40.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…893cbacked Aurora | 80c | 39.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 243 | 43.6%106 W · 137 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed 1win | 33c | 37.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcf…056bbacked Aurora | 63c | 37.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Aurora | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Aurora | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…d220backed Aurora | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b86…3010backed Aurora | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bb…24b7backed Aurora | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.