TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$153,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$143,846

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,814 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes16c22,082$3,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,626.592015%3 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-43.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes8c11,967$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.193935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes7c11,467$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.1717414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes2c7,026$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.46516.9%11 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa493…612ebacked No68c3,357$2,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.475042%21 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked Yes1c3,340$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.713312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53cb…f7bdbacked Yes27c2,582$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.181723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c2,476$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.14769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c2,189$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No80c2,150$1,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.4335355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x60fc…3c36backed Yes1c1,845$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes15c1,834$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.8642738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4221…7364backed Yes57c1,781$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.171915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-63.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes2c1,595$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.031879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No78c1,446$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.775253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7600…3eecbacked Yes59c1,053$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc60…07f2backed Yes1c1,040$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes10c1,029$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.61673%2 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes41c961.04$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.94698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d5a…78e9backed Yes9c840.32$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes42c776.96$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.3236750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5907…3b88backed Yes6c694.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e4d…1acebacked Yes32c675.47$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2152025%5 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes45c675.43$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.1445843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbab9…9d74backed Yes3c674.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes18c648.56$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.881,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No36c592.54$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.8147334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes62c528.5$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551b…dfd1backed Yes40c520$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e6…a82abacked Yes11c502.64$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ff…7840backed No75c501$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeecc…ef84backed No64c484.5$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1736547.7%31 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c4…0799backed Yes10c478.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+38.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No46c455.8$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.9240939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No6c428.04$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.363151.6%16 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.38per pick14cpaid+350.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x9a29…729ebacked No57c359.99$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No80c358.12$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.661457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes10c352$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.776549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5f6…4498backed Yes6c321.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x617e…940abacked No53c318.24$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfe…6edabacked No55c313$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.78475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+682.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed No65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1052944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa47b…a496backed No73c299.99$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb68d…fb0abacked Yes10c295.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes43c289.93$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9115331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes42c282.42$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.617646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f12…4a0dbacked No44c269.64$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No55c255.51$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.518056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdee1…aed2backed Yes59c254.11$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf78f…a7e0backed Yes8c246.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed No63c245.94$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.052737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30ae…4af2backed Yes10c236.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46be…4ad3backed No52c231.69$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.69633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ba…a074backed Yes47c213.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc794…d09cbacked Yes48c207.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100287.1%2 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7db…40f4backed Yes10c199.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-53.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88d5…c654backed Yes71c194.49$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfd…1c41backed Yes23c193.85$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No72c188.29$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.229626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54da…5117backed Yes66c181.91$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec0…6d2abacked No58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb10…bdd3backed Yes56c170$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c165.1$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4489617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8da6…b20abacked Yes36c155.06$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.82540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72cb…542ebacked No76c150$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes12c150$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d4…4128backed Yes42c149.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+108.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1db5…79f4backed Yes68c148.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes24c146.58$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7856336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed Yes50c143.11$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed No39c133.51$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.738529.4%25 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce0a…27aabacked Yes67c133.15$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cb…70f2backed No40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7290…1770backed Yes39c121.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec9…be0dbacked Yes10c120.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.251020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes60c116.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d99…4ca3backed No45c116.05$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.052245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0141…c2dabacked No49c113.69$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.121926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid+33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69d0…fb2abacked Yes13c107.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa779…5772backed No50c105.2$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.117445.9%34 W · 40 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368235.4%29 W · 53 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54bb…f873backed Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4afb…328dbacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x644e…ff58backed No11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+146.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No60c99.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409057.8%52 W · 38 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+44.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1cb8…5e8fbacked Yes43c99.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+69.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x19b4…9518backed Yes41c97.42$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402532%8 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ae…a5e8backed Yes43c95.35$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes69c95.23$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6623420.9%49 W · 185 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed No57c89.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.72548%12 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes56c84.46$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4917449.4%86 W · 88 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No60c81.71$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3118929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7772…5e17backed Yes44c81.18$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes22c78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.167540%30 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed No55c77.8$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.013748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24de…e852backed No60c76.67$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8a…9f2abacked Yes15c74.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3450%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd25…b2afbacked Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes16c73.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9626616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.