AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01d662916aafaa18ed2e6452482074bba88a19982ca2865ac04b1ed550d60d13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3974…18a3backed Yes | 8c | 10,337$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 7,500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaae…3c3dbacked Yes | 4c | 6,000$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,549$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,101$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…778cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4a…adddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,059$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,023$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…7807backed Yes | 20c | 958.36$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 707.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad3…1ad5backed Yes | 14c | 660.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 6c | 582.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4c…75a7backed Yes | 8c | 553.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 530.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed Yes | 34c | 449.66$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 332.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 4c | 300.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 28c | 300$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856c…7e2ebacked Yes | 17c | 210.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 8c | 210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…1b78backed Yes | 10c | 208.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 8c | 201$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfafb…27eabacked Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes | 23c | 187$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes | 33c | 72.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…89b6backed No | 73c | 58.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 53.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 53.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4d…905abacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.