TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$195,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$234,397

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,073 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6590…3a26backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No3c8,566$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.2426312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c8,086$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.221,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3974…18a3backed No24c7,718$1,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,818.0780%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ccf…21b3backed No4c6,329$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No2c4,182$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.121713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0486…2a2fbacked No9c2,300$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2077332.9%24 W · 49 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No3c2,200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.996291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No6c2,187$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.08244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb94f…04d8backed No1c1,711$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b46…78bdbacked No60c1,670$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0022821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2245…d89abacked No62c1,653$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes38c1,629$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.071030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3806…f4c4backed No6c1,500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No3c1,221$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.46712.8%2 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No11c1,132$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.08358.6%3 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-81%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked No17c1,071$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.34147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-88.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d43…814dbacked No2c1,050$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5584…6e2abacked No2c999.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172010%2 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-59.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No20c965.51$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.0120418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01bf…070dbacked Yes63c952.38$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.38425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-60.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes39c892.32$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.884755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+17.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdf31…4837backed No2c837.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9770%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…717ebacked No4c833.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes50c825.51$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.9424315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed No2c800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16260%0 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8864…3ed5backed Yes40c750$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1508543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfafb…27eabacked Yes47c499.97$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.04944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8d5…d45abacked No24c374.96$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No34c277.12$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6525122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ff…e17ebacked Yes67c223.82$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.823100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d16…12d0backed No23c221.96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+47.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No15c211.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2620148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x980f…778cbacked Yes40c211.22$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.73119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5522…7695backed No6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked No50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.489850%49 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No43c200$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.548041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes27c199.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.998241.5%34 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b69…6622backed Yes52c176$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.48757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+39.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No12c173.28$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5247938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes70c171.73$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.731020%2 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-71.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2b56…d1e1backed Yes75c162.72$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.96875%6 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab38…77febacked No48c147$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.561637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Yes51c141.66$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f1f…7b0bbacked Yes77c131.01$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.824100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9df…8517backed Yes79c125.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Yes68c119.35$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No34c117.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed No46c113$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.981154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ba…76d1backed Yes38c105.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb65e…3e11backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No23c96.12$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4289317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes33c89.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.744228.6%12 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-47.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No27c83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.185950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff8d…93fcbacked Yes80c79.76$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.261050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes72c78.28$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9272935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae8a…9f2abacked No17c75.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.771533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+91.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd60c…bce9backed Yes70c71.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes46c69.96$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.785016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x875d…25cfbacked No32c69.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x860f…0a33backed Yes60c66.72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No46c66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.071225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-33.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x856c…7e2ebacked Yes79c63.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-68.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.82552%13 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.17per pick35cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No28c58.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1328828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc441…fb83backed Yes53c56.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.886100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79f2…15e0backed Yes65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f4d…905abacked Yes45c49.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb927…1c55backed Yes45c44.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.232228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed Yes53c39.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.681643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49f…6314backed Yes53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.743100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef60…7b39backed Yes55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa457…1a93backed No48c36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.281540%6 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-33.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36cf…32a9backed Yes57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01f4…2c5ebacked Yes47c33.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcea9…741bbacked Yes73c27.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22df…ed56backed Yes77c25.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.973360.6%20 W · 13 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7cb…2f62backed Yes78c25.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.623100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90d7…8c77backed Yes78c25.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-36.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No68c21.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.468551.8%44 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52df…ab55backed Yes76c21.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x976e…a7c8backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ad…3581backed No63c18.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61225%3 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.