AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa77b7617cae58926e28fc8428aabde425b67ea16d028f3d7f7fe9daf45a9b1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 1c | 9,914$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…444dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,283$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,078$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,178$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cde…e94abacked Yes | 1c | 1,861$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked No | 30c | 1,052$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.69 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked Yes | 43c | 539.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.28 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da0…73e2backed Yes | 70c | 528.57$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…067ebacked Yes | 57c | 390.25$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 60cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…7edfbacked Yes | 79c | 357.19$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 49c | 177.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…3774backed Yes | 68c | 158.82$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…0e43backed Yes | 62c | 157.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked No | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 44c | 121.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 13c | 117.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 45c | 114.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…a2afbacked Yes | 70c | 86.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd099…3a44backed Yes | 15c | 74.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f2…15e0backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd56…ab8dbacked Yes | 52c | 58.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…c8c2backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db8…4348backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…451fbacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe495…5be9backed Yes | 69c | 36.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e87…b3ccbacked Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed9d…9dbbbacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9102…d6a9backed Yes | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…778bbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Yes won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.