TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump announce a cut to U.S. military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,014
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,775

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,014 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes11c14,690$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,651.2123435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes13c3,887$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.8725311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes10c2,093$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.91010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-79.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,706$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3415217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes6c1,191$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.989115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes8c1,014$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.252123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac40…926ebacked Yes9c826$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcee8…cf81backed Yes14c707.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x750a…d86cbacked Yes9c625$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No75c520.5$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.3521426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No79c504.41$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.414656.5%26 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c503.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.251302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes4c500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2580%0 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes14c442$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-71.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes9c440$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40380%0 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes3c424.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2926238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes7c400$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275318.9%10 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes13c399.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545820.7%12 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed No75c364$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No35c359.99$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.89034.4%31 W · 59 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes12c348.01$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.218711.5%10 W · 77 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…126dbacked Yes29c342.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+51.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed No74c340.92$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.791163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No65c329.4$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.897250%36 W · 36 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c318.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.645327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes17c317.36$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.136443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes6c315$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.85520%0 W · 52 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes18c310.32$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.692611.5%3 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-85.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457844.9%35 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes6c299.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5472.1%1 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-95.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes10c296.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.01180%0 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed No72c290.61$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed No55c279.99$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.21526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes17c274$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2211741%48 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb334…eeb1backed No74c270.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick75cpaid-54.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81d2…f36abacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed Yes25c217$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7166…f815backed Yes25c204$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b0…76f4backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204847.9%23 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5810651.9%55 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1091…a259backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes11c196.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.616431.3%20 W · 44 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes20c195.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404124.4%10 W · 31 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x18be…88a1backed Yes10c190.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x388e…2078backed No49c183.14$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.534744.7%21 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bcd…40f7backed Yes28c181$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed No75c180$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-73.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed Yes25c169$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes20c165$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-57.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No80c165$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes17c160$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.24630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x440c…a4f1backed Yes36c151.08$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…6999backed Yes25c148.68$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.68110%0 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes11c148.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0813128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x72bd…e51ebacked No68c146.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.96887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick66cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No50c146.09$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5117232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes20c144$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3841736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No76c143.79$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.796357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes9c130$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.335341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb85d…4ac4backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256100%6 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes17c118$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.063145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No55c116.81$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.639475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f01…548cbacked Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-78.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2a0…27a9backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d42…8fbbbacked No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391070%7 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+73.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb84f…e425backed Yes12c94.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-49.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8809…6e34backed No60c91.22$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.221030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed No64c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.41070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+52.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes22c89.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6120026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed No60c88.87$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No80c76$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed Yes20c76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaef…e564backed No79c66.88$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.24475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes17c65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.056126.2%16 W · 45 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.42634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d3…13cdbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed No75c46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7d8…6082backed No76c42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.08785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+46.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed Yes46c41.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.03633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1228…c4fabacked No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f0…a149backed No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.773050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe097…d811backed No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.773100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+90.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc00b…7f8dbacked No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6b…a116backed No55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick64cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c2f…443fbacked No72c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13ff…ec9dbacked No71c26.76$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c95…7652backed No79c26.41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.55520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-74.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.