Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump announce a cut to U.S. military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32dca1cae77bf20f54d6285374504e27242891405abd4578e1f5118718ec0144
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 11c | 14,690$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.21 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 13c | 3,887$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.87 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes | 10c | 2,093$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,706$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 1,191$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,014$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac40…926ebacked Yes | 9c | 826$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee8…cf81backed Yes | 14c | 707.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…d86cbacked Yes | 9c | 625$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 75c | 520.5$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.35 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 79c | 504.41$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.41 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 503.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes | 14c | 442$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 9c | 440$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 3c | 424.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 13c | 399.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 75c | 364$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 35c | 359.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.8 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 12c | 348.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…126dbacked Yes | 29c | 342.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed No | 74c | 340.92$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.79 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 65c | 329.4$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.89 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 318.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 17c | 317.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 315$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 18c | 310.32$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 6c | 299.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 10c | 296.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed No | 72c | 290.61$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed No | 55c | 279.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 17c | 274$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb334…eeb1backed No | 74c | 270.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81d2…f36abacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 25c | 217$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed Yes | 25c | 204$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 11c | 196.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 20c | 195.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18be…88a1backed Yes | 10c | 190.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 49c | 183.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.53 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcd…40f7backed Yes | 28c | 181$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 75c | 180$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 25c | 169$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 20c | 165$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 80c | 165$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 17c | 160$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…a4f1backed Yes | 36c | 151.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6999backed Yes | 25c | 148.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 148.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…e51ebacked No | 68c | 146.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 50c | 146.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 144$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 76c | 143.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 9c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 17c | 118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 55c | 116.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…27a9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb84f…e425backed Yes | 12c | 94.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…6e34backed No | 60c | 91.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 89.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed No | 60c | 88.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed No | 80c | 76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 20c | 76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…e564backed No | 79c | 66.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…13cdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d8…6082backed No | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 46c | 41.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…c4fabacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…a149backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe097…d811backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc00b…7f8dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…a116backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2f…443fbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…ec9dbacked No | 71c | 26.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c95…7652backed No | 79c | 26.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.