TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

IPO · resolved market

Will Medline's market cap be between $55B and $65B at market close on IPO day?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,674
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,011

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,674 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xae18…1132backed No57c948$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No57c940$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.94450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes6c926.38$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.013740.5%15 W · 22 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes43c900$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadc9…5856backed Yes43c836$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed Yes43c792$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.72850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+132%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…f8a1backed Yes43c595$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes43c591$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ab6abacked No57c581$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.83425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes43c559$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.52837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked No57c544$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+59.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No57c530$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba3d…cdfabacked Yes43c508$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.44425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-67.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc23e…1461backed Yes7c500$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.843630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-35.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b79…360fbacked Yes43c489$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3702…829dbacked No58c482$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5829…e46bbacked No57c470$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.1366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked No57c444$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.82475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed Yes42c437$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+225.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed No58c431$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+204.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93c0…b919backed Yes43c407$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked Yes43c390$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes43c379$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.97425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-62.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed No57c357$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes43c330$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes42c330$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed Yes43c326$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes43c313$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+50.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes10c308.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.32245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked Yes43c305$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2064…e748backed No57c305$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick37cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed Yes42c301$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…eae0backed Yes43c298$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed No57c286$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+130.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c2e…3d70backed Yes5c284.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x130f…fc43backed No57c279$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No58c275$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+102.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes43c273$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+284.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19a7…3ec1backed Yes40c272.68$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7775…6cb4backed No57c267$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed Yes43c259$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3740%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No57c255$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.65520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed No57c252$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+215.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf977…aff0backed No58c252$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ed…28e1backed No57c247$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked No57c242$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked Yes43c238$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+138.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1897…c285backed No58c238$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6891…1146backed Yes43c231$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f6…595cbacked No58c231$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed No57c228$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.043100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+271.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed No57c224$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked No57c223$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4406…5eafbacked No57c218$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes43c217$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf06d…db77backed No57c212$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f66…ad61backed No57c210$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.33100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+167%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed No57c204$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed Yes43c197$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked No58c184$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes43c184$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+284.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc32a…7c05backed No58c183$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed No58c180$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.43475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+189.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes42c176$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe539…5345backed No57c169$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5372…5f61backed No57c169$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed Yes43c168$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+284.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…4815backed Yes42c164$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked Yes42c163$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes43c162$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+156.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked Yes42c158$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4348…fa2abacked No57c156$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c0…c4c9backed No57c155$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c55…8adebacked No57c144$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.92560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+101%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed No57c142$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes21c140$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b6f…6890backed No58c137$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes43c131$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcd9…6c92backed Yes42c131$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7c2…fcbebacked No58c130$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+213.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes43c125$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.75475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick29cpaid+262.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes10c124.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.293923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No57c124$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e57…6c04backed Yes43c122$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes43c122$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick30cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54fd…4ac3backed No69c121$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.43161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56d1…83eabacked Yes41c120$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed Yes42c116$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.72616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed No57c114$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes31c111.69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7914425.7%37 W · 107 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed No57c108$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.44475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes43c107$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed Yes43c103$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed No58c102$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked No57c96$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.28742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed No57c92$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ac…9907backed No58c91$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes37c89.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.672128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-45.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x40a1…8919backed Yes43c89$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.