IPO · resolved market
Will Medline's market cap be between $35B and $45B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe26dcaac62b99f8201d4f426f708e669741a38d8041868a469685ec3d2c0252b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 23c | 2,290$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.18 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…4ca3backed Yes | 13c | 1,428$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…3dfcbacked Yes | 13c | 841$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed Yes | 14c | 729$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0ec1backed Yes | 13c | 603$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed Yes | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb214…a6aabacked Yes | 13c | 551$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 20cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked Yes | 13c | 412$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed Yes | 13c | 367$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 10c | 344.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked Yes | 13c | 331$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes | 13c | 313$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 50c | 308.75$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.48 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Yes | 59c | 246.73$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 47c | 232.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.63 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 74c | 226.67$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 10c | 174.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 45c | 122.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed Yes | 13c | 107$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 56c | 105.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 89.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…db0ebacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 38c | 41.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…a3a9backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7369…59a1backed Yes | 58c | 21.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44cc…1f63backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8910…cad5backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…0001backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3710…2b8dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Medline's market cap be between $35B and $45B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Medline not IPO by December 31, 2025?No won
- Will Medline's market cap be between $45B and $55B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Medline's market cap be between $55B and $65B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Medline's market cap be greater than $65B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Medline's market cap be less than $35B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.