IPO · resolved market
Will Medline's market cap be greater than $65B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49f382530aa8edb1d1618db25dd89e9822baba655c8d39ef72ec23b1cf8d1c5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 6c | 441$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked Yes | 8c | 420$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 14c | 383$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 15c | 378$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc94…efd5backed Yes | 14c | 376$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 6c | 375$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 8c | 324.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 14c | 304$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 14c | 294$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 14c | 294$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 15c | 278$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed Yes | 14c | 273$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 14c | 269$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 14c | 261$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 5c | 252.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 14c | 191$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2111…667fbacked Yes | 14c | 161$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 14c | 155$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 14c | 145$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 14c | 144$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed Yes | 14c | 119$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Medline's market cap be greater than $65B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Medline not IPO by December 31, 2025?No won
- Will Medline's market cap be between $35B and $45B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Medline's market cap be between $45B and $55B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Medline's market cap be between $55B and $65B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Medline's market cap be less than $35B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.