IPO · resolved market
Will Medline's market cap be between $45B and $55B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8cc2a3e4afa6729797008edd1678a4d095a3ca677417deeda1fce83d43c044a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc23e…1461backed Yes | 40c | 1,673$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.98 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…f8a5backed No | 71c | 1,560$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 32c | 1,113$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.48 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 30c | 1,086$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…01b0backed No | 67c | 1,020$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9c…26d0backed No | 67c | 1,020$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked Yes | 29c | 934$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +191.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes | 30c | 889$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fb…f72ebacked No | 70c | 884$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd1…2bb3backed No | 70c | 694$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…ea4ebacked Yes | 30c | 572$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 24c | 562.88$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed Yes | 29c | 553$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…d20ebacked No | 71c | 530$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…0f0fbacked No | 70c | 526$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…857abacked No | 70c | 525$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 30c | 389$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…cb94backed Yes | 30c | 375$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…4c53backed Yes | 29c | 341$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed Yes | 30c | 338$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…28d0backed No | 70c | 338$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 33c | 308.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.16 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…19c8backed Yes | 29c | 277$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 67c | 258.66$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…3d70backed Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 189$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 32c | 182.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…9be8backed No | 70c | 148$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1abbbacked Yes | 30c | 146$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 20c | 131.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 33c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 16c | 105.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 76c | 59.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 68c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 68c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 40.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c24…ae45backed Yes | 43c | 32.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…81acbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…46dfbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff0…c7aabacked No | 67c | 25.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…2c82backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 75c | 15.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Medline's market cap be between $45B and $55B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Medline not IPO by December 31, 2025?No won
- Will Medline's market cap be between $35B and $45B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Medline's market cap be between $55B and $65B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Medline's market cap be greater than $65B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Medline's market cap be less than $35B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.