TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,087 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x827f…7f59backed Over57c11,364$6,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,477.371553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd29…77aebacked Over55c11,361$6,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,248.416358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under43c8,076$3,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,583.7875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under47c6,383$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.984254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Over55c3,000$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.946762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under64c2,959$1,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.182,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Over29c2,911$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.821662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+54.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Over56c2,274$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.2310945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c75…b299backed Under46c2,191$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.435100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+108%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under61c1,920$1,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.2719139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over55c1,820$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0018068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Under45c1,740$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.237057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4922…34a7backed Over11c1,490$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.43729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Over55c1,364$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7502050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+47.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb9f…ee38backed Over41c1,151$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under43c1,112$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.841,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Over56c999.73$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.85560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed Over34c925$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under43c924.57$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.841,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5544…802abacked Under60c898$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x322f…65a5backed Under44c895.45$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.45850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Over58c866.3$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006448.4%31 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x646f…23c3backed Over39c866$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab9…2ff1backed Under61c818$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over54c799.98$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.9922747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over54c766.65$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.9956547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Over57c750$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.58143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50eb…c59fbacked Over28c749$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed Under60c716$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Over40c716$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e7…9bc7backed Under59c714$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Over55c702.42$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.814658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under44c681.82$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.824647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed Under61c672$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed Under74c656$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd215…b4eebacked Over40c650$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a12…ec08backed Under44c649.98$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed Under60c639$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over55c616.28$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.958336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Over58c600$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3486251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef37…f2bcbacked Under61c577$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+133.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a41…1160backed Over39c545$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x528f…7572backed Under61c544$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over56c539.51$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30018759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9da…81d7backed Over56c537.5$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30130%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Over55c526.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.8514254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Over57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed Under60c512$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+233.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf907…e7dbbacked Under49c492$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.922100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick35cpaid+252%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked Over40c481$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+85.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Under72c466$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcc1…d40bbacked Over33c460$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce25…4e7dbacked Under74c459$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9279…9ca7backed Over27c448$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Over26c441$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59ad…e59abacked Under74c406$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3bc…43e9backed Under67c384$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f6…595cbacked Under60c384$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde45…8238backed Over40c384$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x465c…6e53backed Under59c381$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01dd…fb46backed Under49c381$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked Under45c377.78$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.785044%22 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x910a…91a9backed Under73c366$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1832…af9ebacked Over35c359$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8e0…a63bbacked Over40c351$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb13f…75cebacked Over59c341.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed Under49c338$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…8234backed Over26c329$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked Over26c327$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e5…d252backed Over39c326$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked Over40c326$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed Over39c324$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97d1…b2efbacked Over39c312$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Under56c305$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.95560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+71.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Over56c302.07$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.164252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Under43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1717335.6%26 W · 47 L-6.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under62c299.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11435856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under43c299.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.9911056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Over42c292$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed Under58c292$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c9…af45backed Over39c289$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.7140%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58fe…a8c5backed Under61c289$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked Over40c288$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed Under72c283$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Over32c282.94$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905339.6%21 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under43c279$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.9563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb86e…e0ecbacked Over51c273$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93c8…7861backed Under59c270$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+92.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Over41c270$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over56c269.22$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.073,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8dd…ddbcbacked Over56c268$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.081376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6891…1146backed Over39c266$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2de8…293cbacked Under60c264$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+46.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff1…85cdbacked Over40c264$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under43c259.36$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.1549647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe704…7558backed Over58c259.13$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017855.6%99 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Over55c255.04$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.859551.6%49 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed Under73c254$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba6f…8cc1backed Over27c254$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over4c253.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1213139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.