Middle East · resolved market
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fdc9378687811c1d2cea4a34b7fde554fae02eed16f21ee54fd1a5abdc99c11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 736.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…20c1backed Yes | 5c | 617.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…d677backed Yes | 6c | 594.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…6e62backed Yes | 7c | 415.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 368.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 352.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 351.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 347$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70e2…5c64backed Yes | 6c | 341.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 11cpaid | +811.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f639backed Yes | 7c | 304.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057f…94a3backed Yes | 14c | 242.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f60…b0a4backed Yes | 8c | 196.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed Yes | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 11c | 188$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…9b30backed Yes | 10c | 100.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…bbfabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa73…7edcbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.