TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Stephen Graham (Adolescence) win Best Actor – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,782

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,490 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb862…5aaebacked No17c1,065$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.051850%9 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb04e…d4aabacked No9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905414.8%8 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked No17c926$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.423540%14 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24e4…09dcbacked No17c903$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.512958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe02b…e86dbacked No13c889$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.57977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+50.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked No17c876$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.922832.1%9 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1e17…c6b5backed No17c819$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.592147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168e…aa56backed No17c739$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.631450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+63.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8c…26fdbacked No9c727$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.431442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed No17c709$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.531643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked No24c650$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1563256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No17c609$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.535345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29a9…d4f7backed No17c602$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.341650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88fa…2cf4backed No19c595$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.582528%7 W · 18 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-46.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xafa3…c3ddbacked No9c589$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.012050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed No17c554$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.181729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x27f9…0074backed No22c461$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No9c444.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed No17c396$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.322733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb85b…77dbbacked No17c391$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.473036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No12c339$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8729926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa43f…db8abacked No21c338$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0360…74dfbacked No22c306$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed Yes76c301$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.242646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No15c294$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-79.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf738…56bdbacked Yes76c282$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.681346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed No17c281$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.772748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502b…a7a9backed No17c235$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.952552%13 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bf8…c7afbacked No13c234$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.422152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No17c234$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.782737%10 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked No9c221$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.893016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-60.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes76c213$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.123745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed No17c204$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.683240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked Yes76c201$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.242466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No18c189.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3113130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No6c184.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.645324.5%13 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e0f…5b81backed Yes78c158$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eeb…fdfcbacked Yes78c156$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf8…6ea3backed No21c149$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x730d…6c4dbacked Yes78c147$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f9…dde4backed Yes79c142$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a4…4163backed No21c142$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb43f…aa29backed No22c133$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe26a…70a8backed No22c130$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked No24c124$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.762055%11 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e4…bb94backed Yes79c121$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c42…a64bbacked No9c114$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.261553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f10…c936backed Yes79c113$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96cf…6e7dbacked No22c112$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c0…5186backed No22c112$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1c8…24e8backed Yes78c110$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdd…194fbacked Yes78c108$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c70…de74backed Yes79c104$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ca…2d31backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No29c95.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.951,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x80ca…0aa2backed No22c95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb50b…f50abacked No22c91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No15c90$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4813650%68 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafea…230bbacked No17c90$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.31346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a6a…0f6dbacked No21c89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.69250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c6…c82dbacked Yes78c88$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d2e…f9adbacked No22c86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ba…0b00backed No21c84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf341…9f48backed Yes79c84$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+190.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf79…0b94backed No22c82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ff6…52d1backed No24c78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed No17c66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.223253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e9a…c5a9backed No21c65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe2e…3189backed No22c59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20f4…b33bbacked Yes79c54$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46ca…c61cbacked Yes78c51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.134651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x83aa…f11cbacked No22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b60…d6a1backed Yes79c49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd1…9c20backed No32c47.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157627.6%21 W · 55 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x48ac…7a4dbacked Yes78c47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x232e…2df1backed Yes78c47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd48…bf4dbacked Yes78c47$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ab…a292backed Yes79c46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…30a2backed Yes78c42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f8…c782backed Yes78c39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6348…c599backed Yes78c38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe068…12bcbacked Yes78c37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ce…1deebacked Yes78c37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20f7…e07cbacked Yes78c36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26cf…b457backed Yes79c36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3814…c345backed Yes78c36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x704f…f117backed Yes76c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x875a…f6cabacked Yes78c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ec…4572backed Yes78c34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63fc…67bebacked Yes76c33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc61e…7c81backed Yes78c33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed8…ef1fbacked Yes76c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e40…e050backed Yes78c32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x196a…ad26backed Yes78c31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec53…a8d4backed Yes78c31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ee…edc4backed Yes79c31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85a1…075dbacked Yes78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.