Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Armada" during meeting with Netanyahu?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffdf37e88f10401d17fab02ecf24b83c6cf81396ab4bea40e8b9de10b743846c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,372
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,372 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9498…d950backed No	64c	1,166$746 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$419.76	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+149%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked No	63c	773$487 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286.01	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2da…1108backed Yes	43c	672.34$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.74	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	30cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x416c…8dcebacked Yes	36c	602$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.72	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+74.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0e…282abacked Yes	37c	421$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.77	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	28c	402.21$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.71	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	73c	399.99$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	643	39.3%253 W · 390 L	-59.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes	36c	337$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.32	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes	36c	227$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.72	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+25.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a37…141abacked Yes	37c	202$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.74	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x28fc…8555backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No	63c	195.49$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.69	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	34c	163.2$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.34	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes	37c	150$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.5	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No	55c	145.28$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.74	511	38.7%198 W · 313 L	+18.7wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed No	55c	140$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.4	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes	21c	127.22$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.31	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	37c	82.19$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.41	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…4c92backed Yes	44c	79.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.39	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71ba…90abbacked Yes	45c	74.11$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.41per pick	66cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde4a…20cbbacked Yes	48c	62.62$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcff1…f8debacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed Yes	41c	58.84$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.88	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	48cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	39c	56.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.37	135	43.7%59 W · 76 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x900e…a4d3backed No	52c	55$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	61cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No	75c	53.83$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.7	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+4.9wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ca0…e59dbacked No	55c	51$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.17	38	50%19 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54fc…9232backed No	59c	47.32$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.28	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+59%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	37c	32.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.04	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed No	58c	29.08$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.21	57	47.4%27 W · 30 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48d4…c5f8backed No	56c	26.79$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.79	21	81%17 W · 4 L	+3.6wins	+0.17per pick	64cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	66	37.9%25 W · 41 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d21…599dbacked No	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7e…35b7backed No	54c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.22per pick	38cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d1a…324ebacked No	74c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.2	99	53.5%53 W · 46 L	+8.9wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x127a…3344backed No	70c	15.66$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.75	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Armada" during meeting with Netanyahu?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event