TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during meeting with Netanyahu?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,978

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,259 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9464…b4cbbacked Yes29c736$213 inLost-$213.441030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c10…d7b3backed No78c692.33$538 inWon+$154.7110100%10 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes11c478.9$51 inLost-$51.023941%16 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked No71c473$336 inWon+$137.171855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+60.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3474…be04backed No70c429$300 inWon+$128.7850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes30c429$129 inLost-$128.72360.9%14 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+70.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x43d7…54a7backed Yes30c389$117 inLost-$116.72321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.5wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-47.8%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed No70c389$272 inWon+$116.72055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes23c320$74 inLost-$73.649023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ac…d8c5backed No71c320$227 inWon+$92.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No71c317.51$227 inWon+$90.673161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0548…66a0backed Yes12c203$24 inLost-$23.562548%12 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked No72c174$125 inWon+$49.4612525.6%32 W · 93 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes13c148.12$19 inLost-$18.881833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f92…15d2backed Yes28c140$40 inLost-$39.83737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No69c129.03$89 inWon+$4064339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7234…4c92backed Yes28c120$34 inLost-$33.84339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked Yes29c103$30 inLost-$29.871241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes28c81$23 inLost-$22.6885725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xfca8…a898backed Yes31c64.52$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes27c57$15 inLost-$15.2135819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed No71c46$33 inWon+$13.341266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+42.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79c3…957fbacked No70c18.06$13 inWon+$5.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.