Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Hell" during meeting with Netanyahu?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0695c708e604041796cb185afe24c6b5671831fa1b70a3fb29ac8c3d72b9a49c

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,989
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,203

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,989 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2103…e296backed Yes	36c	723$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.28	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a79…1ccbbacked Yes	17c	716$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.72	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No	59c	641$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.81	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ec…46cebacked No	64c	572$366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.92	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.8wins	-0.31per pick	53cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed No	59c	485$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.85	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.18per pick	46cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6787…8884backed Yes	41c	485$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.85	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+2.2wins	+0.14per pick	42cpaid	+56%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99ab…edc1backed Yes	41c	401$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.41	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x528f…7572backed No	64c	379$243 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$136.44	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00c8…e4c8backed Yes	41c	266$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.06	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-4.5wins	-0.25per pick	53cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xb1ad…216fbacked Yes	16c	264.97$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No	57c	220.57$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.85	511	38.7%198 W · 313 L	+18.7wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	34c	219.97$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.79	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No	56c	213.34$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.1	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7f…db83backed No	59c	200$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	71c	174.62$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.3	643	39.3%253 W · 390 L	-59.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5be7…46eebacked Yes	41c	174$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.34	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	47cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	38c	171.78$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.71	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c10…d7b3backed No	78c	155$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.7	10	100%10 W · 0 L	+2.3wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes	12c	152$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed Yes	36c	122$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.92	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-2.3wins	-0.15per pick	42cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4c5…dcb1backed Yes	36c	106$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.16	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+2.5wins	+0.23per pick	32cpaid	+103.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7234…4c92backed Yes	43c	100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18c4…e9c5backed Yes	22c	90$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ee…da09backed No	55c	71.8$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.31	76	36.8%28 W · 48 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+42%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	44c	59.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.39	135	43.7%59 W · 76 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f92…15d2backed Yes	44c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked No	66c	30.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.36	83	45.8%38 W · 45 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes	45c	25.13$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.31	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48d4…c5f8backed No	66c	22.73$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.73	21	81%17 W · 4 L	+3.6wins	+0.17per pick	64cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Hell" during meeting with Netanyahu?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event