Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Witkoff" or "Kushner" during meeting with Netanyahu?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b20e814d3257eaa569de72f8ab940a691ca903d09ab76531f4535f9a8f532a6

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,795
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,795 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e17…0d52backed No	57c	1,363$777 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$586.09	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd134…5558backed Yes	43c	1,178$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.54	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…d7b3backed No	76c	976.43$741 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.01	10	100%10 W · 0 L	+2.3wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No	65c	771.93$502 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.96	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes	24c	702.24$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.5	98	25.5%25 W · 73 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8859…22c0backed Yes	22c	454.6$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.01	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	28c	381.59$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.66	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8760…ae52backed Yes	6c	351.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes	43c	283$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.69	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No	58c	243.46$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.23	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	28c	208.04$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.25	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	43c	157.88$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.05	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7234…4c92backed Yes	41c	139.99$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8718…6741backed Yes	43c	139$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.77	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.29per pick	43cpaid	+93.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb976…c213backed No	57c	139$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.77	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	27c	122.93$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.67	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed Yes	15c	120$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	194	45.9%89 W · 105 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e24…ed17backed No	57c	120$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.8	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.8wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+55%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No	70c	107$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.09	296	53.7%159 W · 137 L	+20.2wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+104.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	41c	100$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	643	39.3%253 W · 390 L	-59.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	40c	76.72$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	857	25.2%216 W · 641 L	-115.1wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3478…db36backed Yes	60c	75$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb407…a978backed No	57c	70$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.1	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9916…54dcbacked Yes	65c	61.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-14%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65cf…8f97backed Yes	44c	56.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e36…e5ccbacked Yes	44c	48$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd222…fdb5backed Yes	43c	46.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked No	64c	34$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.38	125	25.6%32 W · 93 L	+5.8wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No	36c	30$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.2	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d62…144dbacked Yes	43c	29.72$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No	70c	28$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.54	52	67.3%35 W · 17 L	+4.4wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed No	57c	28$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.04	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed No	67c	20.09$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.68	77	22.1%17 W · 60 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Witkoff" or "Kushner" during meeting with Netanyahu?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event