Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "NATO" during meeting with Netanyahu?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c1355bcd1c75f9d90bdb6d736fa0ae26e6e6e09008e5fe0fe6f058156739754

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,625
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,121

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,625 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x282e…3eaabacked No	62c	978$606 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$371.64	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	46cpaid	+94.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes	38c	744$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.72	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c10…d7b3backed No	78c	709.4$553 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.88	10	100%10 W · 0 L	+2.3wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xed1d…8707backed No	78c	705.06$549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.86	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf65b…675cbacked Yes	20c	600$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	19cpaid	-81.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes	37c	496$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.52	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.18per pick	46cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9ae…8598backed No	63c	496$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.52	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+3.1wins	+0.13per pick	39cpaid	+63.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes	21c	406.53$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.96	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	21c	350$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.5	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf1…68cabacked Yes	38c	200$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed Yes	17c	173.23$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	24c	169.07$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.07	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No	64c	147$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.19	511	38.7%198 W · 313 L	+18.7wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed No	79c	140$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.4	30	76.7%23 W · 7 L	+6.7wins	+0.22per pick	54cpaid	+50%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes	20c	125.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.71	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.19per pick	27cpaid	-75.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes	23c	111$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.53	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	29c	90.19$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.29	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No	59c	82.66$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.08	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b22…91b3backed Yes	39c	76.92$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe57e…f4f6backed Yes	27c	65.27$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	42c	43.04$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	857	25.2%216 W · 641 L	-115.1wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No	77c	40.11$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	52	67.3%35 W · 17 L	+4.4wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8369…5e03backed Yes	38c	40$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a40…904bbacked Yes	38c	34$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+90.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x900e…a4d3backed No	61c	30$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.7	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	61cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x48d4…c5f8backed No	66c	22.79$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.79	21	81%17 W · 4 L	+3.6wins	+0.17per pick	64cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x54fc…9232backed No	67c	21.49$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.09	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+59%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d21…599dbacked No	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "NATO" during meeting with Netanyahu?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event