Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ timesduring meeting with Netanyahu?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dddab86632730f462176ee221e9a304f1866e29166beabe26ced8b5072ad199
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 44c | 2,807$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.04 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8760…ae52backed Yes | 5c | 1,952$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 50c | 1,358$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.09 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 77c | 1,118$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.94 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 55c | 841.32$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.59 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 54c | 777$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.88 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 45c | 659$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 25c | 505.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.46 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce4…36a6backed No | 41c | 500$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.54 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +355.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2ffebacked Yes | 15c | 450$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed No | 55c | 445$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked No | 55c | 367$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed Yes | 45c | 362$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 55c | 362$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.9 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 79c | 349.99$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb10c…6d2cbacked Yes | 55c | 340$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -4.2wins | -0.46per pick | 68cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 22c | 298.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 45c | 296.9$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.83 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 49c | 277.72$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.55 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 56c | 222.74$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 50c | 215.63$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Yes | 15c | 206.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed Yes | 58c | 199.4$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…49d2backed Yes | 11c | 182.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 178$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 45c | 153$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95d…6a82backed No | 56c | 120.63$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +802.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked No | 47c | 117.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 21c | 111.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebfe…ace0backed Yes | 62c | 106.31$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 48c | 101.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd48e…38bfbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed Yes | 28c | 99.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 38c | 83.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 60c | 79.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 56c | 61.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x843c…0734backed Yes | 20c | 58.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed Yes | 48c | 57.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0b…e325backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 59c | 53.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6be3…c0d4backed No | 55c | 53.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 47c | 48.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed No | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed Yes | 58c | 47.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…8f97backed Yes | 48c | 43.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc95…8e36backed No | 56c | 42.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…251ebacked Yes | 49c | 36.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +337.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 73c | 35.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 33.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d4…c5f8backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe286…35b3backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…35b7backed No | 53c | 22.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…5389backed Yes | 52c | 20.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…78d0backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ timesduring meeting with Netanyahu?this page
- Will Trump say "Accords" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Armada" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "B2" or "F35" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "First Term" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" 5+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "General" or "Bondi" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Goy" or "Goyim" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" 7+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" 13+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Middle East" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "NATO" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Nothing" 2+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace" 8+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Think about" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "VoterID" or "Voter ID" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Witkoff" or "Kushner" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump's meeting with Netanyahu not air?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.