Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Accords" during meeting with Netanyahu?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e6125c46fbbdfd06ce31fa6e3d2bfe25b067a7e6e6406ea45d3b1557a9136e9

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $19,845

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,574 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4035…5e54backed Yes	15c	1,371$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.4	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed Yes	43c	1,332$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.76	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed Yes	43c	1,221$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525.03	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f2…95debacked No	57c	1,003$572 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$431.29	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed Yes	43c	840$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.2	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9464…b4cbbacked No	57c	728$415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$313.04	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	40cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	16c	694.65$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.71	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c1…704bbacked No	57c	648$369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.64	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes	43c	638$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.34	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.7wins	+0.13per pick	41cpaid	+94%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x612d…3fd1backed No	57c	636$363 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$273.48	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+3.1wins	+0.28per pick	45cpaid	+92%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed Yes	43c	591$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.13	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+52.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No	57c	504$287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.72	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc362…7f4fbacked No	57c	393$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.99	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	+45.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffff…35bebacked No	57c	329$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.47	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked No	57c	301$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.43	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6f4…930abacked Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+75.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed No	57c	284$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.12	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+5.1wins	+0.19per pick	44cpaid	+45.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfd44…1837backed Yes	43c	281$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.83	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No	57c	248$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.64	65	58.5%38 W · 27 L	+4.9wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecdf…85edbacked Yes	6c	245.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8e0…a63bbacked No	57c	245$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.35	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.21per pick	38cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77c3…00c8backed Yes	13c	239$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.07	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	56c	200$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88	643	39.3%253 W · 390 L	-59.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed Yes	14c	178.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes	18c	155$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.9	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes	35c	149.78$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.97	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.5wins	-0.19per pick	27cpaid	-75.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	28c	127.01$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.11	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65cf…8f97backed Yes	10c	100.16$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56d1…83eabacked Yes	43c	100$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-6.0wins	-0.19per pick	48cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed Yes	43c	93$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+56.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x179d…e18bbacked Yes	44c	90.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c1d…d05ebacked Yes	44c	63.64$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	17cpaid	+85.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	43c	63$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.09	857	25.2%216 W · 641 L	-115.1wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	60	46.7%28 W · 32 L	-4.5wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23c7…07d7backed Yes	44c	45.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes	43c	45$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.35	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d98…f3debacked No	57c	43.86$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.86	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.34per pick	46cpaid	+154.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No	70c	41.67$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.67	296	53.7%159 W · 137 L	+20.2wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+104.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No	56c	40$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.4	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf93…bdc8backed No	58c	34.73$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.73	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-3.6wins	-0.25per pick	61cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xefc0…4942backed Yes	43c	31$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.16per pick	39cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No	57c	28$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.04	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+3.1wins	+0.24per pick	45cpaid	+105.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd091…e046backed Yes	43c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x900e…a4d3backed No	72c	25$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	61cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d16…528abacked No	78c	24.09$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.32	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+46.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79eb…9c72backed No	70c	21.43$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.43	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-33%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed No	76c	15.35$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.65	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Accords" during meeting with Netanyahu?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event