Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "First Term" during meeting with Netanyahu?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20a05af0534902b96a0905d9c5d2cd1f3c94b3f150f14e61827f06950c9d462a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked No | 79c | 1,039$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.19 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.34per pick | 52cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed No | 78c | 781$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 22c | 781$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 21c | 615$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed Yes | 22c | 521$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 34cpaid | +374.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 74c | 520.36$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.55 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed No | 79c | 375.07$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2da…1108backed Yes | 27c | 369.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 21c | 355.27$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a1…251ebacked Yes | 25c | 351.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +337.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 21c | 346$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked No | 79c | 346$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 78c | 345$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 21c | 337$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 178$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 78c | 176$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…8bf6backed Yes | 21c | 144$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…66a0backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed Yes | 25c | 85.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…5af9backed Yes | 20c | 73.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e24…ed17backed No | 70c | 58.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…e4b2backed Yes | 18c | 57.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…a3acbacked No | 78c | 50.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…4502backed No | 79c | 50.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…324ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "First Term" during meeting with Netanyahu?this page
- Will Trump say "Accords" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Armada" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "B2" or "F35" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Gaza" 5+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "General" or "Bondi" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Goy" or "Goyim" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" 7+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" 13+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Middle East" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "NATO" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Nothing" 2+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace" 8+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Think about" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ timesduring meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "VoterID" or "Voter ID" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Witkoff" or "Kushner" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump's meeting with Netanyahu not air?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.