Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95af3d96e67d8c68a6a93787b6890fac3f924ae41af3329362c2bfde769ffb0d

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,977

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,692 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x134a…9e42backed No	80c	859.08$685 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.36	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa756…b167backed Yes	46c	662$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.52	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-3.9wins	-0.33per pick	41cpaid	-89.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed No	54c	611$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.06	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+2.2wins	+0.17per pick	45cpaid	+100.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed No	54c	577$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.42	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes	46c	519$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.74	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.8wins	-0.31per pick	53cpaid	-67.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb2eb…5751backed No	54c	504$272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$231.84	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+3.0wins	+0.14per pick	48cpaid	+45.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b92…7585backed Yes	46c	466$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.36	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes	46c	464$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.44	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58fe…a8c5backed No	54c	443$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.78	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	28c	300$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.4	490	23.5%115 W · 375 L	+6.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	21c	241.4$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.45	358	19%68 W · 290 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked No	54c	241$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.86	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No	52c	220$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.6	137	38%52 W · 85 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed No	53c	209.98$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.09	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	678	41.6%282 W · 396 L	-20.5wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes	46c	169$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.74	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-2.7wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc900…4557backed Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5781…c707backed Yes	14c	146.21$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c6…49d2backed Yes	14c	144.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c94…e080backed Yes	18c	140.77$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed No	62c	130$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.69	55	25.5%14 W · 41 L	+3.6wins	+0.07per pick	19cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes	17c	120.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	133	21.8%29 W · 104 L	-6.6wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed Yes	40c	112.29$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.81	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked Yes	25c	110$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	149	45%67 W · 82 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x656c…af94backed Yes	46c	96$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.16	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-13%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes	15c	89.58$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	104	44.2%46 W · 58 L	+4.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed Yes	49c	79.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.79	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No	72c	68.01$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.26	52	67.3%35 W · 17 L	+4.4wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes	29c	55$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.95	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed Yes	40c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.13	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	48cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43b4…5389backed Yes	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	43c	39$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.59	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes	31c	37.59$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	60	46.7%28 W · 32 L	-4.5wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79eb…9c72backed Yes	29c	35.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-33%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x884d…1e0bbacked Yes	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf00…33a7backed No	50c	26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+43%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a88…b859backed No	69c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.75	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.18per pick	58cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dcd…a6e2backed Yes	42c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No	69c	24.99$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.69	344	32.3%111 W · 233 L	-31.8wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xab91…4407backed Yes	42c	24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked No	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	-11%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db3…1ae1backed No	73c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8369…5e03backed No	64c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event