Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump say "Gaza" 5+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e2f87d5aad94b17ea35231d15286bbae3ee75256a7bb758e4d40241e28e9133
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 63c | 1,191$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.42 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 38c | 720$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed No | 80c | 494$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed Yes | 20c | 494$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 42c | 444$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 51c | 423.36$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.36 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 58c | 410$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x560e…fe97backed Yes | 8c | 247.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 34c | 220$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 214.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 39c | 197.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed Yes | 18c | 170$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 79c | 148.33$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 27c | 137.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed No | 58c | 136$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 130.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x645d…aa23backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 48c | 104.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd68…cdd3backed Yes | 42c | 102$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 18c | 91.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…91b3backed Yes | 39c | 65.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…ed07backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…5e62backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbd…0978backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 48c | 26.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 72c | 23.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…528abacked No | 78c | 23.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 53c | 22.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8e…d314backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Gaza" 5+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?this page
- Will Trump say "Accords" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Armada" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "B2" or "F35" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "First Term" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "General" or "Bondi" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Goy" or "Goyim" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Hell" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Iran" 7+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Israel" 13+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Middle East" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "NATO" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Nothing" 2+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" 5+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Peace" 8+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Think about" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ timesduring meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "VoterID" or "Voter ID" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump say "Witkoff" or "Kushner" during meeting with Netanyahu?No won
- Will Trump's meeting with Netanyahu not air?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.