AI · resolved market
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x144b7a39b70a5882641f7baa375039e13589c76db8c640a669b9d28da31e9f2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x109e…0a59backed No | 47c | 2,380$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.72 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 17c | 1,039$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.59 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 956.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked No | 78c | 658.24$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab49…a28ebacked Yes | 57c | 507.54$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed No | 42c | 499.99$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…d625backed Yes | 45c | 453.77$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 18c | 436$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 13c | 286$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 25c | 279.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 13c | 275.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +104%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 9c | 265$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Yes | 21c | 200.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 13c | 193$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6504…6bbbbacked No | 53c | 183.04$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…d68ebacked Yes | 15c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked Yes | 13c | 168$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked No | 18c | 156.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.03 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +100%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 49c | 154.97$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…e207backed Yes | 65c | 154.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…7258backed Yes | 72c | 139.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec2…9ac0backed Yes | 56c | 130$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a56…216dbacked Yes | 59c | 119.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 117.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 79c | 113.19$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.26 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2465…fda3backed Yes | 63c | 109.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 75c | 108.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked Yes | 15c | 103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 11c | 99.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…f325backed Yes | 45c | 97.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…85b7backed Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…aa3cbacked Yes | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 40c | 72.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 70.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…d82cbacked No | 45c | 65.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 32c | 63.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…88e5backed Yes | 54c | 55.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…d8aebacked No | 29c | 53.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 41c | 52.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…0f2dbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked No | 54c | 46.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6241…82b2backed No | 69c | 43.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 73c | 43.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b48…9a48backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…148cbacked No | 61c | 41.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b71…b3b5backed Yes | 57c | 40.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…ac7dbacked No | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcd…49a5backed No | 42c | 35.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb156…2161backed Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba2…8cc3backed No | 33c | 32.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +199.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…474dbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…9e78backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.51per pick | 65cpaid | -78%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc43a…349ebacked Yes | 47c | 29.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…fe25backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f4…3f8cbacked No | 44c | 24.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe1…84b0backed Yes | 49c | 24.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaf…e2e0backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x082d…3014backed No | 73c | 20.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed No | 80c | 13.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.