Movies · resolved market
Will "Frankenstein" win Best Production Design at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81a609a1b91c49f68fea4cca5c1c674b3f6247196abc137d9e886c655a51af9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked No | 35c | 761$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.35 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 49c | 696$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.96 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed No | 51c | 560$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 65c | 544$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 49c | 483$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.67 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 79c | 447$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 51c | 434$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.66 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 21c | 433$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.93 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…986cbacked Yes | 79c | 384$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 21c | 375$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed No | 21c | 332$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes | 79c | 309$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed Yes | 51c | 301$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 65c | 217$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…1330backed No | 37c | 184.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fd…19f5backed No | 37c | 178.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 49c | 158$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x113a…5696backed Yes | 63c | 152.47$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80b2…ea2fbacked Yes | 63c | 142.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…4d9abacked No | 51c | 127$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes | 56c | 124.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed No | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 49c | 94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked No | 43c | 68.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc79…f792backed Yes | 72c | 27.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 62c | 23.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.