World Politics · resolved market
Will Baluta win by 0-3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x301e803897c3f4f358c23ad523e880ee7e91aaacc5110766c4f4761ea7cf5259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 25c | 2,551$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 4c | 556.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…789ebacked Yes | 19c | 398.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 33c | 387$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 22c | 318$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 75c | 311.51$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06c1…f1f2backed No | 67c | 295$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 78c | 263$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 230.15$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…415ebacked No | 78c | 227$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…8e0bbacked Yes | 22c | 213.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 28c | 204$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 182$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x54f8…e2d9backed Yes | 26c | 170.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed Yes | 18c | 165$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 18c | 160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be1…cb56backed Yes | 18c | 155$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed Yes | 28c | 151$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…b341backed No | 72c | 145$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad2…9fc8backed No | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 130.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 73c | 128$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes | 18c | 127$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf561…3edfbacked No | 77c | 94.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked No | 67c | 92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed No | 72c | 89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 25c | 79.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked No | 80c | 72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 18c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 76c | 36.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…c250backed No | 75c | 33.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 77c | 30.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e9…1ed6backed No | 76c | 26.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875d…25cfbacked No | 76c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…ee20backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Baluta win by 0-3%?this page
- Will Baluta win by 3-6%?No won
- Will Baluta win by 6-9%?No won
- Will Baluta win by 9-12%?No won
- Will Ciucu win by 0-3%?No won
- Will Ciucu win by 3-6%?No won
- Will Ciucu win by 6-9%?No won
- Will Ciucu win by 9-12%?No won
- Will Ciucu win by at least 12%?Yes won
- Will another candidate win the Bucharest mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.