World Politics · resolved market
Will Baluta win by 3-6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3df89509e9637e0d41939f10b226f5309e7f3c6059cf36bddaf76f3bcc70b15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 9c | 1,079$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff48…789ebacked Yes | 9c | 442.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 5c | 440.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 6c | 399.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 6c | 346.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 316.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 261.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 5c | 240.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 11c | 181$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…3d02backed Yes | 11c | 178$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…d2c9backed Yes | 9c | 164.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +327.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed Yes | 11c | 113$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Baluta win by 3-6%?this page
- Will Baluta win by 0-3%?No won
- Will Baluta win by 6-9%?No won
- Will Baluta win by 9-12%?No won
- Will Ciucu win by 0-3%?No won
- Will Ciucu win by 3-6%?No won
- Will Ciucu win by 6-9%?No won
- Will Ciucu win by 9-12%?No won
- Will Ciucu win by at least 12%?Yes won
- Will another candidate win the Bucharest mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.