World Politics · resolved market
Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x602da294fb0728e2225f67e0bf960224ba8913a016d96074d23786c96d6a2d93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 34c | 1,500$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.97 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…aecebacked No | 75c | 1,216$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 25c | 1,111$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.75 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked No | 67c | 642.75$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.3 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 23c | 340$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 72c | 314$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed Yes | 29c | 304$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed No | 77c | 296$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed No | 66c | 283.66$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 36c | 278.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked No | 71c | 252$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 28c | 249.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes | 32c | 248$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 36c | 222.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked No | 79c | 210$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 28c | 209$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 201.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…8200backed No | 71c | 197$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked No | 68c | 188$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 71c | 170$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…8f4bbacked Yes | 20c | 165$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 29c | 164$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.36per pick | 47cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 11c | 160.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b40…9ebfbacked Yes | 31c | 159.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 71c | 158$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed No | 79c | 152$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed No | 76c | 149$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…9907backed No | 71c | 144$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 29c | 142$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 67c | 126.08$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed Yes | 21c | 126$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes | 21c | 109.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 71c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 34c | 101$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +74%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 29c | 96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 67c | 96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…e29abacked Yes | 32c | 95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked No | 68c | 92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked Yes | 29c | 88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…6cd5backed Yes | 17c | 87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed No | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes | 21c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed No | 71c | 82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 28c | 82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked Yes | 32c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99d…dd2cbacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed No | 68c | 61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +117%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed No | 68c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 68c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed No | 72c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +56%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 77c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…726dbacked Yes | 36c | 28.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…8b21backed No | 66c | 20.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b66…803cbacked No | 66c | 19.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…1655backed No | 66c | 19.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?this page
- Will Ciprian Ciucu get at least 40% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 25% and 30% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 30% and 35% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 35% and 40% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.