World Politics · resolved market
Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 30% and 35% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1e4426517b4df339286246e94f3255eba8e72c79547a35af1f722b126a02284
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 15c | 3,853$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.1 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 70c | 2,266$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.83 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c24…e1afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,983$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 15c | 1,887$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.45 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,627$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.51 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 57c | 1,523$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.38 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 2c | 900$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 74c | 598.03$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 14c | 540$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 14c | 465.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked No | 77c | 386.58$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…1267backed Yes | 29c | 374.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…444dbacked No | 4c | 369.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +183%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 4c | 357$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 327.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…af79backed Yes | 22c | 313.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 5c | 300$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.1 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81df…bcbfbacked Yes | 27c | 252.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +161.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4201backed Yes | 15c | 250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…29fdbacked Yes | 24c | 165.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +232.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes | 12c | 165$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 21c | 141.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed Yes | 8c | 129$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc94…efd5backed Yes | 12c | 128$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf67…98fcbacked Yes | 13c | 122.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 12c | 119$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 12c | 118$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 101$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 12c | 87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 21c | 59.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 47c | 25.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 30% and 35% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?this page
- Will Ciprian Ciucu get at least 40% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 25% and 30% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 35% and 40% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.