World Politics · resolved market
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a8eedca0f52773fc411211b8036e4ec454dd64ed21e74982330271cbc6dde81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6757…5399backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +654.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…7b0bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,386$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 23c | 1,017$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c24…e1afbacked Yes | 6c | 819.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 20c | 751.55$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…6a01backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 21c | 436$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 71c | 428$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 78c | 361.7$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed No | 73c | 302$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 22c | 299.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 298.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes | 29c | 281$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked No | 74c | 276$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9485…1a3cbacked Yes | 23c | 260.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 79c | 258$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed No | 78c | 258$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 72c | 234.47$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked No | 71c | 225$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…af79backed Yes | 23c | 219$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 71c | 196$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 29c | 191$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0c79backed Yes | 26c | 181$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…9509backed Yes | 28c | 177.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 161.73$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 15c | 161.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 79c | 160$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 27c | 152$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 29c | 142$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked No | 71c | 132$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 19c | 131.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…444dbacked Yes | 34c | 128.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +183%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 12c | 124.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 28c | 123.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 29c | 118$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 41c | 115.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b40…9ebfbacked Yes | 27c | 110.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c0…35f8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…6cd5backed Yes | 28c | 98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8585…cfc6backed Yes | 24c | 97.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 13c | 94.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 27c | 94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x667f…8c3ebacked No | 72c | 94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…446abacked Yes | 25c | 92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddd…024dbacked Yes | 22c | 90.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe518…0db5backed Yes | 28c | 89.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Yes | 38c | 86.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked Yes | 29c | 82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes | 27c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked No | 73c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 29c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa20f…fcaabacked Yes | 35c | 55.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed Yes | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 25c | 43.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…8449backed Yes | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?this page
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get at least 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 10% and 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 5% and 10% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get less than 5% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.