World Politics · resolved market
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 5% and 10% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x916aa76ee6b98b6abfd7d51afc65ad51b9fedd7316c3ad8a3c16418c2f053f1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf67…98fcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,474$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…2995backed Yes | 8c | 1,226$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -62%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…8835backed Yes | 6c | 965$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…5daebacked Yes | 6c | 831.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8585…cfc6backed Yes | 7c | 751.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d02…446abacked Yes | 8c | 680.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576f…8abdbacked Yes | 12c | 638$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 2c | 585.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 432.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 4c | 296.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…af79backed Yes | 12c | 168.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 5% and 10% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?this page
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get at least 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 10% and 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get less than 5% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.