World Politics · resolved market
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda3d32e8ed48bbff9f1fff6b458b5caee9ddb2171de4fbb1a85377047c76c338
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 34c | 15,411$5,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,233.58 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf67…98fcbacked No | 57c | 7,543$4,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,324.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 74c | 3,523$2,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.41 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 23c | 2,411$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,844.87 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed Yes | 55c | 1,635$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.81 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 35c | 1,507$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.75 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,096$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…7b0bbacked Yes | 74c | 938.54$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 10c | 771.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 62c | 544.99$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.45 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 68c | 445$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 54c | 405$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb33…1fe7backed Yes | 21c | 333$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.07 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 14c | 318.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b6…f9d9backed No | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 32c | 286$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.48 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 46c | 284$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +117%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…a91fbacked Yes | 37c | 273.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.46 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…78c9backed Yes | 40c | 249.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.68 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 48c | 241.33$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked No | 55c | 227$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…a20abacked Yes | 42c | 225.48$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.64 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed Yes | 10c | 212$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes | 45c | 211$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 45c | 210$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 62c | 204.72$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c24…e1afbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed No | 55c | 187$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +74%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 165.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.78 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 44c | 161.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.72 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 39c | 149.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 44c | 140.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.69 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…6c92backed No | 55c | 137$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 43c | 129.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 33c | 123.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed No | 54c | 121$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 46c | 118$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 32c | 118$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 45c | 115$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 62c | 112.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…861bbacked No | 70c | 107$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes | 46c | 103$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed No | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 45c | 86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 56c | 82.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked No | 55c | 82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…6cd5backed Yes | 47c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 45c | 82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked No | 53c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 41c | 77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 43c | 75.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 55c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…2923backed Yes | 45c | 72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed No | 55c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 60.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 66c | 54.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…06a5backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55b…857bbacked Yes | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 56c | 35.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed No | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +125%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 31.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 43c | 27.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…394ebacked Yes | 44c | 26.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…ff48backed No | 58c | 26.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…396fbacked Yes | 45c | 24.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 42c | 24.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Yes | 61c | 23.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a64bbacked No | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…a505backed No | 59c | 18.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb961…d074backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?this page
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get at least 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 10% and 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 5% and 10% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
- Will Anca Alexandrescu get less than 5% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.