Music · resolved market
Will any artist win 5+ Grammys this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3084942e2b794454af3bf4940e357c84ecdf0fc9fa8810a16f29e39d5499e48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked No | 54c | 917$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 46c | 777$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked Yes | 46c | 757$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked No | 54c | 638$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 46c | 505$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 54c | 359$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 54c | 357$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…4435backed Yes | 46c | 357$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 71c | 345.14$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…c2dfbacked Yes | 46c | 151$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 54c | 146$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 54c | 119$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…a983backed Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4810…d688backed No | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 40c | 40.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…3337backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +199.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9c…56a2backed No | 52c | 30.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf6…0864backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd36c…6b38backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 80c | 15.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.