Movies · resolved market
Will "One Battle After Another" win Best Director at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c6255de756f4cde5ee0d0461ceccc00876ed900f64b156e705cac69b0209bb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 5c | 2,073$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked No | 6c | 1,023$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed No | 9c | 617$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 76c | 589.5$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.31 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 12c | 566.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed No | 14c | 491$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed No | 9c | 484$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed No | 6c | 460.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 10c | 429$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked No | 9c | 393.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 5c | 384.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 11c | 381$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 9c | 284$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked No | 12c | 249$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 12c | 237$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 11c | 207.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked No | 11c | 202$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…8ce0backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…4674backed No | 14c | 135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb289…9403backed No | 12c | 98.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x190c…04d1backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "One Battle After Another" win Best Director at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?this page
- Will "A House of Dynamite" win Best Director at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Die My Love" win Best Director at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Hamnet" win Best Director at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Marty Supreme" win Best Director at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
- Will "Sinners" win Best Director at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.