Movies · resolved market
Will Benicio del Toro win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f1914e04087566e3bf0f83e6b9c15453656c357d3352b0cb0bf10f3927acfb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7786…7914backed Yes | 22c | 974$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 20c | 935$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.09 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 11c | 864.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 25c | 635$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 78c | 617$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked Yes | 19c | 606$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked No | 75c | 599$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.75 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 17c | 591$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 14c | 525$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 20c | 437$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 18c | 357$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 18c | 339$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 18c | 325.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 17c | 310$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 75c | 306$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 25c | 270$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 78c | 236$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 79c | 201$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 21c | 201$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 126$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.94 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 21c | 121.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…297bbacked No | 78c | 121$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8366…4d53backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +219.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 15c | 112$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed No | 79c | 105$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…c970backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…b99bbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 98.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb165…d9ffbacked Yes | 18c | 81.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…828dbacked Yes | 29c | 78.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 64.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x413b…dc9cbacked Yes | 25c | 49.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 73c | 49.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 25c | 40.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 76c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benicio del Toro win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?this page
- Will Adam Sandler win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Miles Caton win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Paul Mescal win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?Yes won
- Will Stellan Skarsgard win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.