Movies · resolved market
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84f28a6217d2a3b87b5272465460b06565dfd15be7a781322614b32a052f8ed5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 19c | 1,045$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 78c | 995$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed No | 59c | 727$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 22c | 623$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.94 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed No | 59c | 618$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.62 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 29c | 554.9$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.42 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 21c | 529$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.91 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 20c | 493$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 80c | 461$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.8 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 41c | 458$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…c2c6backed No | 48c | 444$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed Yes | 41c | 440$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +93%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…59b0backed No | 45c | 379.48$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 80c | 370$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed Yes | 20c | 370$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2111…667fbacked Yes | 19c | 346$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 79c | 332$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed Yes | 44c | 313$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.28 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…d42ebacked No | 56c | 313$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed Yes | 22c | 298$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…49c9backed Yes | 56c | 269.18$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked Yes | 41c | 269$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 50c | 232.67$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked No | 79c | 197$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.63 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 40c | 184.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 48c | 178.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed Yes | 41c | 178$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 41c | 176$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.87 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 17c | 174$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 46c | 163.51$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5d…f965backed Yes | 61c | 160.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…50e1backed No | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed Yes | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed No | 53c | 140$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 55c | 124$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 39c | 123$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 61c | 123$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa181…ece8backed Yes | 54c | 117.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…2204backed Yes | 65c | 115.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 40c | 112.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 183 | 44.3%81 W · 102 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 17c | 108$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 329 | 24%79 W · 250 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 63c | 95.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…36e4backed Yes | 60c | 89.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…0275backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed Yes | 72c | 81.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 80.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 47c | 79.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked Yes | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…dc6dbacked Yes | 53c | 74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed Yes | 22c | 74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 56c | 68.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 46c | 61.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 48c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…3b00backed Yes | 25c | 50.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e73…034dbacked Yes | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed No | 54c | 49.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c1…8cd6backed Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 34c | 40.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3c…3ebcbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…69ffbacked Yes | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 48c | 36.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 47c | 35.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 38c | 34.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…9bc6backed Yes | 62c | 32.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 80c | 32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 71c | 31.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 67c | 26.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf3…8e0bbacked Yes | 77c | 25.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f7…213cbacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 57c | 23.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?this page
- Will Adam Sandler win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Benicio del Toro win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Miles Caton win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Paul Mescal win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Stellan Skarsgard win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.