TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,150 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f63…6643backed Yes76c6,437$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.0520100%20 W · 0 L+5.4wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No28c4,250$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes17c2,823$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick17cpaid+506.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed No71c2,367$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,677.698632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No11c1,801$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.913010%3 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ed…25a4backed No4c1,700$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed Yes16c1,347$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed Yes12c1,285$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick29cpaid+316.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes21c1,205$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.228528.2%24 W · 61 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes25c1,122$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84114325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be7…46eebacked Yes15c953$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+224.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25d8…644ebacked Yes15c919$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+549.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes23c915.95$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.3822433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd215…b4eebacked Yes12c878$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes12c869$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84a4…8cb2backed Yes27c843.77$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+88%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes30c821.59$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.13714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-51.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed Yes12c818$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef68…d402backed No76c805.95$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes12c801$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c9…af45backed Yes12c663$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa78e…74b0backed Yes12c648$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes12c622$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+222.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes11c599.95$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.966523.1%15 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes12c585.65$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.736429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed No59c581.49$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.613847.4%18 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes16c528$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+513.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f36…2819backed Yes29c526.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed Yes20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+156.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f0d…93debacked Yes24c500$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.51250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d23…aa07backed Yes13c482$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes17c474$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed Yes12c402$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed Yes17c400$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3321100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes10c387.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.631631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa22e…109cbacked Yes12c386$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+400%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe291…9806backed Yes20c379.46$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.46714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d03…ef8ebacked Yes12c360$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0be4…b548backed Yes17c348$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.421513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes18c347.6$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.8229913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes15c337.38$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.91323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes18c321.45$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.443724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc2…97dbbacked Yes60c314.1$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes12c296$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes19c292$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.212049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb1…6de8backed Yes12c280$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick34cpaid+407.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes15c279.09$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.071735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+71.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfab0…bd9cbacked Yes23c277.77$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.75933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+16%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes17c272.84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.59633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No73c264.45$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95e9…5bb2backed Yes27c255.49$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x541a…1740backed Yes12c245$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes21c218.76$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.572839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes19c215$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.291020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes27c211.34$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.67633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb28…74f4backed Yes17c201$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Yes26c193.03$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.437030%21 W · 49 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa994…19a6backed Yes18c188.56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+442.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed No11c183.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.28195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x458d…5455backed Yes7c179.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.392100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+680.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x805a…735dbacked Yes12c170$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x217e…09debacked Yes12c160$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+381.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No28c143.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.56139.3%24 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c141.15$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6615148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefc0…4942backed Yes12c137$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9205…2aa7backed Yes29c132.66$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes27c120.7$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c120.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0214024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes14c118.77$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.451526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes23c115.31$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.543655.6%20 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbff8…7073backed Yes40c115$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes27c112.4$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.771729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8eba…7a23backed Yes42c107.42$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes16c106.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.353743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a3b…d363backed Yes66c106.22$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.783231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No70c99.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.891952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes16c98.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.58922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6129…11c4backed Yes27c92.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+271.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes21c90$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.29560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+54.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4113…88bebacked Yes22c90$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No66c89.04$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.77955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52c5…4a9cbacked Yes58c86.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x246a…d909backed Yes60c83.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked No75c79$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes20c77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.66728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No77c76.52$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.641752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-21.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes20c71.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.741442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6894…9a67backed Yes18c70$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No78c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No37c69.91$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.822060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked Yes52c69.55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe8…4cfbbacked Yes30c66.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadf2…f295backed Yes30c66.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+232.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x552f…1f0bbacked Yes20c64.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+397.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No74c62.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.431866.7%12 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08db…296fbacked Yes19c57.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.89333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes19c57.59$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.69498.2%4 W · 45 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes27c55.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+264.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.