TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,391
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,705

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,391 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes38c3,141$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab58…f788backed Yes20c3,135$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes9c3,054$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.221936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked No64c3,050$1,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.261631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes16c2,027$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.327122.5%16 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes7c1,664$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.57633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed No68c1,457$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes19c1,425$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.26714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-51.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes8c1,395$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.757525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes36c1,374$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.613016.7%5 W · 25 L-6.5wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-65.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes7c1,342$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5712049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce55…1796backed Yes39c1,293$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa5…2380backed Yes32c1,289$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed Yes45c1,101$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x202b…971abacked Yes39c1,100$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf57…588ebacked No71c1,069$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed Yes32c1,065$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes2c1,060$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x440e…4907backed No64c1,029$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.021643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes45c1,006$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe70…e8e9backed Yes32c959$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes28c907$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+222.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f0f…98e8backed No55c848$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe54d…c913backed No62c771$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed No60c742$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf977…1690backed Yes45c740$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes44c736$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked Yes32c728$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbc…d620backed Yes38c713$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed Yes33c709$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes39c705$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No60c689$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x656c…af94backed Yes38c665$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes39c657$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes9c638.8$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.043847.4%18 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xc450…a5b8backed Yes40c637$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed No63c634.92$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfdc…444dbacked Yes39c595.67$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacb1…6de8backed No55c564$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick34cpaid+407.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed No68c564$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a8…2a44backed No68c518$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74b8…0c87backed Yes39c518$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…115ebacked No61c512$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked No68c497$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed Yes37c496$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed Yes45c491$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7e…275ebacked No59c485$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed No55c474$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x159f…333fbacked No55c474$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98cb…a127backed Yes45c474$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfec9…b7c0backed Yes27c472$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5663…99aebacked No73c472$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43c9…47c1backed No68c468$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed No61c466.98$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.1822433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6956…dd15backed No59c466.58$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc7…8211backed Yes33c458$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec0…76f4backed No67c458$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa347…2a40backed No61c457$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40a1…8919backed Yes49c444$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked No51c444$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82a7…afb5backed Yes38c441$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad46…0918backed No55c436$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked No62c427$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf779…d36fbacked Yes21c420.46$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1650%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37dc…85ccbacked Yes10c416$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes8c407.77$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.761612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-83.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes29c399$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcae4…ccecbacked No55c392$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed No63c383$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed Yes37c383$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes41c382$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes8c381.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.61323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45f0…4435backed No63c375$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…a432backed Yes37c375$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes9c368.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.318632.6%28 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ece…35e8backed No67c361$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes13c360.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.916429.7%19 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6546…c454backed No64c358$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes7c351.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.974436.4%16 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28c9…99aabacked No67c348$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec9…3213backed No55c348$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39c4…2d95backed Yes12c347$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d42ebacked No68c331$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0be4…b548backed Yes12c327.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.141513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes7c326.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.933724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d3…53dcbacked No59c306$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc319…6baabacked Yes41c306$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe055…8df9backed Yes13c299.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38605%3 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked No64c299$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7233…f0eabacked Yes36c293$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6142…367bbacked Yes12c286$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b8…0ec1backed No55c276$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe291…9806backed Yes7c267.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.88714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed Yes36c267$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No62c267$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4060…c1c4backed Yes9c263.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.997135.2%25 W · 46 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+74.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ca3…9546backed No64c261$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53b7…4146backed No55c253$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes39c248.89$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.151526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa71c…d0a8backed No61c248$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.