Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x574893d630a2d42f13f16cb22871a678a7346ec0ab480100646e66e0f3e70f36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 21c | 2,764$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 13c | 1,756$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x199f…3d76backed Yes | 19c | 1,277$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe291…9806backed Yes | 23c | 1,178$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 1,035$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.1 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 12c | 988$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 10c | 970.62$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 21c | 948.66$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.96 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 79c | 943$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed Yes | 12c | 880$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed Yes | 12c | 836$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed No | 79c | 813$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 77c | 797.76$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.84 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Yes | 17c | 782.86$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 25c | 675.22$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.16 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…b548backed Yes | 9c | 656.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed No | 80c | 598$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…469fbacked No | 80c | 595$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 20c | 592$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +224.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 20c | 589$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 10c | 588.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 18c | 583.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 80c | 574$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed Yes | 13c | 436$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 79c | 422$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8df9backed Yes | 6c | 417.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 60 | 5%3 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…dd47backed Yes | 24c | 400$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 10c | 389.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…f788backed Yes | 10c | 377$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 358.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…8cb2backed Yes | 20c | 337.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +88%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 334.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 326.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 79c | 255.59$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 254.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…5bb2backed Yes | 26c | 237.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 24c | 226.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 16c | 217.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 21c | 215$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…2aa7backed Yes | 21c | 186.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 79c | 184.84$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 17c | 159.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 9c | 149.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1083…be16backed Yes | 15c | 133.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 15c | 132.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 131.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9e…86fdbacked Yes | 22c | 127.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 111.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 22c | 106.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 74c | 103.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…d37cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b63…4b44backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 13c | 99.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 82.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6928…d7afbacked Yes | 26c | 76.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 19c | 59.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9b…a9aabacked Yes | 26c | 57.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 50.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…3bb9backed Yes | 30c | 50.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…11a5backed Yes | 38c | 46.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 78c | 45.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 34.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 33.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c99…7102backed No | 73c | 33.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 75c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14d…35a5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +262%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.