Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf7d903a72d0450260093c13010a773f138ca61cfd3e9a7022ef058c255fb79a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 22c | 11,101$2,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,425.18 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 80c | 7,603$6,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.4 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 9c | 2,762$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.45 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 10c | 2,300$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.28 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 2,267$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 1,109$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…1838backed Yes | 8c | 973.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…286ebacked Yes | 8c | 637.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…0e49backed Yes | 12c | 626.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 75c | 586.36$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.47 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…b548backed Yes | 7c | 566.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…00b1backed Yes | 18c | 559.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 545.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 523.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…bae4backed Yes | 8c | 451.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked No | 79c | 358.11$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…7a7ebacked Yes | 6c | 332.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…faf6backed Yes | 25c | 330.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 10c | 326.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 4c | 289.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 11c | 285.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 8c | 252.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 12c | 249.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b8…e4d3backed Yes | 9c | 228.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe291…9806backed Yes | 8c | 227.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 9c | 215$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…de43backed Yes | 9c | 200.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…977ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…93eebacked Yes | 6c | 178.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…3401backed Yes | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed Yes | 13c | 163$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef8…4a8ebacked Yes | 15c | 114.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 13c | 113.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 11c | 106.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213f…160cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 98.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…11a5backed Yes | 15c | 93.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…1984backed Yes | 19c | 77.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…48f7backed No | 77c | 77.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…f9c8backed Yes | 27c | 37.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed No | 71c | 36.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…649dbacked No | 70c | 34.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0aa…0730backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 78c | 18.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?this page
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?Yes won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?No won
- Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.